The FOMC meets this week. The Fed already has unlimited QE in place. Not much is expected to come out of this meeting. If anything, aware that low rates are needed, Mr. Powell may drop a hint or two that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 8, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29.2k, up 3.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The two-day meeting ends on Wednesday with a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. This is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 25.7k, down 89.2k. Once again, the 10-year Treasury yield (0.97 percent) is back at testing the one percent level. Friday, rates rose as high … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 24, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 115k, down 37.3k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.84 percent) has come under … Continued
As major US equity indices post record highs, margin debt is inching ever closer to its high from May 2018. In all probability, November will have made a new high in margin debt. Amidst all this risk-on behavior, it is … Continued
Company buybacks are having quite a bit of a dry spell. As corporate boards act thrifty this year, it has not had much impact on stocks. The buyback shortfall is being offset by bulled-up foreigners and investor willingness to take … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 17, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 152.3k, up 57.7k. Both the 50- and 200-day moving averages closed Thursday at 0.77 percent. The former is rising and the latter dropping. Friday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 10, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Veterans Day holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 94.6k, up 100.3k. The last time the 10-year Treasury yield (0.91 … Continued
Easy money is here to stay. That was pretty much the message Chair Powell delivered this week. The US economy is up to the gills in leverage. A sustained rise in interest rates will hurt. The Fed will try to … Continued
US corporations continue to aggressively issue debt in the bond market. Even amidst this supply, demand remains good. Both LQD and HYG are near their record highs. Besides the Fed essentially acting as a backstop, corporate boards are probably also … Continued