Building on the crude theme a week ago, spot West Texas Intermediate crude did indeed break out of a declining trend line drawn from May 2015 (Chart 1). It rallied 3.3 percent for the week. For the last eight sessions, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016. 10-year note: Bloomberg ran a story on Tuesday saying the ECB would probably gradually wind down bond purchases before the end of quantitative easing, and that it may … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 27, 2016. 10-year note: Once again, Mario Draghi, ECB chief, urged Eurozone governments to complement central-bank action. He was speaking before the European parliament on Monday. Mr. Draghi said there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy. So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016. 10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 6, 2016. 10-year note: Is the ECB reaching the end of the stimulus rope? This is not a consensus thinking, but the bank may very well be trying to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Prior to this week, after hawkish comments from several FOMC members, it looked like the August jobs report was the sole make-or-break data … Continued
Jackson Hole came and went. At the annual confab, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, last Friday seemed to agree with preceding hawkish messages from three prominent FOMC members – Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, William Dudley, New York Fed president, and John Williams, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In the Greenspan era, traders did not have to deal with the kind of mixed messages they do today. Back then, the message … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued