Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 11, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 340.2k, down 26.7k. September’s consumer price index, out Thursday, added to upward pressure on the interest-rate trajectory. Last month, headline and core CPI respectively … Continued
Last week, equity bulls owned the first two sessions, but only for bears to make a strong comeback as the week progressed, forming potentially bearish candles along the way. Right here and now, the bias is down. The two-day rally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 4, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 366.9k, up 1.7k. Wednesday brings FOMC minutes for the September 20-21 meeting. The fed funds rate was raised by 75 basis points in that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.2k, up 135.6k. Ae we there yet? Makes you wonder considering how the long end of the treasury yield curve has been behaving. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.3k, down 63.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had yet another opportunity this week to convince the markets that he and his team are … Continued
VIX took a dive on Wednesday after getting denied at 27.50s for several sessions. Concurrently, Investors Intelligence bulls plunged 15.4 percentage points over two weeks to sub-30 percent, and the Hedgopia Risk Reward Index is rising from oversold territory. Equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 30, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 440.1k, up 58.9k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday seemed to have done the trick. At the symposium, he strongly … Continued
The Fed is selling its treasury holdings, foreigners are buying. Non-commercials are shorting 10-year note futures, the US budget deficit is narrowing. Amidst these supply-demand dynamics, the 10-year T-yield is at risk of forming a potentially bearish technical pattern. The … Continued