Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.2k, up 135.6k. Ae we there yet? Makes you wonder considering how the long end of the treasury yield curve has been behaving. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.3k, down 63.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had yet another opportunity this week to convince the markets that he and his team are … Continued
VIX took a dive on Wednesday after getting denied at 27.50s for several sessions. Concurrently, Investors Intelligence bulls plunged 15.4 percentage points over two weeks to sub-30 percent, and the Hedgopia Risk Reward Index is rising from oversold territory. Equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 30, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 440.1k, up 58.9k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday seemed to have done the trick. At the symposium, he strongly … Continued
The Fed is selling its treasury holdings, foreigners are buying. Non-commercials are shorting 10-year note futures, the US budget deficit is narrowing. Amidst these supply-demand dynamics, the 10-year T-yield is at risk of forming a potentially bearish technical pattern. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 23, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.2k, up 18k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, strongly pushed back against any notion of a pivot. Post-July … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 16, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 363.1k, up 76.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of last Tuesday, they held 363,128 contracts, up from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 9, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 286.5k, down 9k. Non-commercials slightly cut back net shorts in 10-year note futures. At 286,478 contracts, holdings remain elevated. In the week before, as … Continued