On Friday, March’s employment numbers will be reported. Job growth has been decelerating for months now. Amidst this comes February’s JOLTS report, which points to more softening in the jobs picture in the months ahead. In February, the US economy … Continued
In March, The Nasdaq 100 jumped 9.5 percent. In contrast, the S&P 500 only managed to rally 3.5 percent, while the Russell 2000 small cap index gave back five percent. Tech’s outperformance comes at a time when economically sensitive small-caps … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.6k, down 99.5k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year-note futures by nearly 100,000 contracts this week, to 471,578. In the week to February 28, … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 is itching to break out, even as the Russell 2000 is on the verge of a breakdown. Small-caps have a larger exposure to the domestic economy and hence could be sending a message. Optimistic sell-side estimates for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2023 (data is now current, with publication this week of two weeks’ worth of data). 10-year note: Currently net short 571k, up 63.7k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his … Continued
The two-day FOMC meeting ends today. Unlike calls from some major brokers not to raise, the policy-setting body in all probability will hike by 25 basis points to a range of 475 basis points to 500 basis points. More importantly, … Continued
It is an FOMC week this week. Fed funds futures expect the one-year tightening cycle to terminate with a 25-basis-point hike this time; by June, the Fed is already expected to ease, with 2023 ending at 3.68 percent and 2024 … Continued
The treasury yield curve, crude and copper are seriously worried about prospects for the economy. Not the sell-side, which continues to expect a banner year – both 2023 and 2024 – for S&P 500 operating earnings. Odds heavily favor their … Continued
If the overnight strength in the futures market sticks and Tuesday’s CPI report cooperates, there is room for continued rally in stocks. Some indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day are way suppressed, although the … Continued
Within a year, US interest rates have gone up a lot, with the fed funds rate having risen from zero-bound to north of 4.5 percent currently. In the futures market, traders expect the benchmark rates to peak between 550 basis … Continued