It is easy to see why bears get tempted to short. Fundamentally, things are ugly. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has essentially backstopped stock prices. Shorts have gotten squeezed over and over. Bruised tech shorts are still not … Continued
The recovery in the economy from recent lows has been uneven. In equities, the S&P 500 (large cap) rallied to a new high last Friday, while the Russell 2000 (small cap) was rejected at a crucial resistance. Amidst this, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 87k, up 81.5k. Last Thursday’s intraday high of 0.73 percent just about tested the upper bound of a five-month range, in which rates went … Continued
Economic data are coming in mixed after recent lows. In the aggregate, there is no V as far as the economy is concerned. In contrast, the S&P 500 completed a perfect V, which came about over six months. As things … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 5.5k, down 86.6k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.71 percent) had a strong week, up 15 basis points, but not enough for a range breakout. … Continued
Tech, which led for a while, is now lagging. Amidst this, Tuesday produced interesting price action on both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, with sellers showing up at crucial price points. Tech has begun to lag. The Nasdaq 100 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 92.1k, up 18.9k. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in the week to June 10 at $7.17 trillion, up nearly $3 trillion in three months. … Continued
Volume is anemic, but ultimately price is the final arbiter. A 0.7-percent rally from Tuesday’s close will have filled a February 24th gap, which is likely to happen in the sessions ahead. After that, bulls will be eyeing the February … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 73.2k, up 44.1k. The 10-year treasury yield lost five basis points this week to 0.54 percent. Five-month support at 0.57 percent has been breached. … Continued
Between March and June, FINRA margin debt increased $105.4 billion, providing a nice tailwind for stocks. As a percent of disposable personal income, margin debt dropped to 2.8 percent in April, down from 4.3 percent in January 2018. Historically, peak-to-trough … Continued