Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.8k, down 2.5k. On the back of stronger-than-expected data – from consumer and wholesale inflation to retail sales as well as Chair Jerome Powell’s … Continued
After four negative weeks, equity bulls should be happy with how things have panned out week-to-date but it is far from all-clear. The Nasdaq 100 reclaimed the 50-day, while the S&P 500 closed Tuesday right on it. Both broke through … Continued
Investors Intelligence bulls are down three weeks in a row from 100-week high 61.5 percent to 51.5 percent. Sentiment remains in the optimistic zone. Importantly, this week’s rally attempts were just denied at the 50-day on the Nasdaq 100, which … Continued
Bulls tried to put foot down on Monday. If they succeed in building on this further, the next tug of war on major indices lies around their respective 50-day, reclaiming of which can even induce short squeeze, particularly in tech. … Continued
Short squeeze of non-commercials in the futures market was a big factor behind the rally in the S&P 500 since mid-June. These traders have now targeted the Nasdaq 100. This has raised tech bulls’ hopes for a squeeze. But conditions … Continued
The recent selloff in equities has come at a time of elevated Fed balance sheet, stabilizing earnings estimates and improving macro data. Either stocks believe these positives are not lasting or they are falling under their own weight, as they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 52.9k, up 14.9k. This week, the ECB surprised markets with its new bond purchase program (more below). The FOMC meets next week. But no … Continued
Stocks continue to trudge higher. Volume is low and action listless. But price tells us otherwise. Amidst this, some divergences are showing up, and they are worth paying attention. Equity bulls deserve kudos. Since the October-December decline last year, they … Continued
As suggested last week, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has met with resistance. The index seems to be putting in a top, at least in the near-term. To refresh, late-February/early March, previously hot, momentum-packed groups such as small-caps, biotechs, … Continued
One of the divergences we have witnessed in recent weeks/months is weak action in small-caps. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index peaked early March, then suffered a nine-week, 11-percent decline, followed by a rally beginning mid-May. The index still trades … Continued