After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November. It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17. This followed growth of 3.2 percent in … Continued
After healthy growth last three quarters, the U.S. economy is in deceleration, magnitude and duration notwithstanding. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was forecasting 1Q18 real GDP growth of 1.9 percent, revised down from 2.5 percent, reflecting this week’s … Continued
There are signs growth is decelerating, but from a healthy level. Data relating to orders and inventories do not yet seem to be a problem, but worth watching. Most of this week’s economic data offered more of a downside surprise … Continued
U.S. corporate bond issuance was $106.2 billion in June, comprising $83.1 billion in investment-grade (IG) and $23.1 billion in high-yield (HY). This puts the first-half total at $868.1 billion, of which $714.1 billion is in IG and $154 billion in … Continued
U.S. banks’ commercial and industrial loans continue to decelerate. March, out last Friday, came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.08 trillion, down $14.7 billion month-over-month. This was the second consecutive m/m decline – and fourth in last … Continued
Last Wednesday, speaking to the Wall Street Journal President Trump said that the dollar was getting too strong and that it would eventually hurt the U.S. economy. In the past, he, as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have made … Continued
Tuesday was J.P. Morgan’s (JPM) annual investor day. Bloomberg pointed out that CFO Marianne Lake talked about loans depleting a little bit – the growth rate, that is. Core loans were up 15 percent last year. She sees 10 percent … Continued
NYSE margin debt dropped 3.4 percent month-over-month in October to $484 billion; the S&P 500 fell 1.9 percent in that month. Debt rose 6.3 percent in September to a 15-month high $501.1 billion. Margin debt peaked at $507.2 billion in … Continued
U.S. banks’ commercial & industrial loans dropped $6.5 billion month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion (Chart 1). These loans have come a long way – rising from a cycle low of $1.18 trillion in … Continued
This could very well be setting up like a tug of war between favorable seasonals and elevated multiples, with possible retest of make-or-break 2120 on the S&P 500 large cap index. Going back to 2009 when the bull market erupted, … Continued