The euro just broke out of a falling trend line from April 2008. It has rallied the past four and a half months, pushing the daily and weekly in particular into overbought territory. In the futures market, non-commercials, in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 92.1k, up 18.9k. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in the week to June 10 at $7.17 trillion, up nearly $3 trillion in three months. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 73.2k, up 44.1k. The 10-year treasury yield lost five basis points this week to 0.54 percent. Five-month support at 0.57 percent has been breached. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29k, down 29.1k. Tuesday, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting. This will be the fifth of eight scheduled meetings this year. There were two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.1k, up 14.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.63 percent) continues to bounce along the lower bound of a four-month range between 0.73 percent and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 43.2k, up 12.2k. The 10-year Treasury yield is clinging on to support. It shed four basis points this week to close at 0.63 percent; … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 30, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 31k, up 24.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield cannot break the logjam. Since bottoming on March 9th at 0.40 percent, rates have pretty much been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 16, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 10.9k, down 13.1k. Foreigners are aggressively getting out of the US sovereign bond market. In March and April, they sold $475.6 billion in Treasury … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.3k, up 55.2k. Post-conclusion of FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday sought to play down May’s much-better-than-expected jobs report, which showed the economy … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 52.9k, up 14.9k. This week, the ECB surprised markets with its new bond purchase program (more below). The FOMC meets next week. But no … Continued