Following a vertical two-year run, gold just had a very volatile couple of weeks. Bulls failed to hang on to a fresh high $5,608 posted on 29 January, even as bears pushed it all the way down to $4,405 on … Continued
The Russell 2000 has finally joined the S&P 500 in reaching new highs. Lower interest rates, and hopes for more, likely triggered the move. The path ahead is not so clear. Bulls could be either looking at a massive breakout … Continued
Small-caps are showing some improved action. With so many false dawns in the past, bulls hope this lasts and that the economy is headed for Goldilocks, as too hot or too cold may not suit their bias. Small-caps have spring … Continued
Equities failed to rally last Wednesday, when the FOMC handed out a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Stocks had a very nice session on Thursday. With that said, the last three daily candles on the S&P 500, which did rise to a … Continued
After June’s CPI Thursday, markets are heavily betting a September rate cut is all but certain. For equity bulls, who have rallied the indices massively on the back of ‘a rate cut is coming,’ this could very well mark a … Continued
As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
US households have built up massive equity in their homes, but homeowners are not rushing to tap into equity. Rising rates are probably to blame. The situation is unlikely to get better in quarters to come, as the Fed keeps … Continued
With 2Q23 earnings season nearly over, S&P 500 companies are set to earn more than what was expected at the start of the quarter. This, however, is not so as relates to S&P 400 and 600 companies. Mid- and small-caps … Continued
Interest rates on both the short and long end have gone up meaningfully. The federal government sits on nearly $33 trillion in debt, and the budget deficit is on the rise even though the economy is growing. This only means … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 623.8k, down 5.8k. This week, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 525 basis points … Continued