Stars may be lining up near term for equity bulls, but medium-term worries remain. Margin debt and corporate buybacks are no longer providing the kind of tailwind they did until recently. Buybacks simply collapsed in 2Q19. With 94.9 percent of … Continued
Margin debt fully cooperated with a 6.9-percent June rally in the S&P 500. Bulls obviously hope this continues this month. They would also want to see the recent increase in bullish investor sentiment pick up steam. After dropping 6.6 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied to a new high last week. Since January last year, it has more or less treaded water, although there have been higher highs. Several potential sources of tailwind are missing in action. Corporate buybacks are the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from record highs. They have done so without much help from foreigners and margin debt. Bulls deserve kudos, but then again, how long can this go on? US indices are within … Continued
The S&P 500 is within striking distance of a new high, even as margin debt is substantially below last May’s record high. Concurrently, unlike in the past, VIX refuses to sustainably drop to high single digits/low double digits. Margin debt … Continued
Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data. By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this. Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued
The sharp decline in US stocks last October-December forced the Fed to do a 360 as relates to its campaign to tighten monetary policy. The dovish shift apparently wants to unleash animal spirits. Investors have obliged – thus far. Will … Continued
Bulls are snorting – again. From the Boxing day bottom, the S&P 500 is up 14 percent. Last week, it recaptured 2630 as well as the 50-day. While healthy, the rally has come too far, too fast. Equity bulls deserve … Continued
It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October. The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term. This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued