Later this morning, we get revised and detailed estimates of December’s durable goods data. The preliminary numbers were released last week, and there was no change in the trend. The trend is anything but going in the right direction. Orders … Continued
U.S. corporate capital expenditures have been lackluster. That is an understatement. As a percent of real GDP in 3Q15, non-residential fixed investment comprised 12.8 percent. The post-Great Recession high of 12.9 percent was recorded in each of the three quarters … Continued
In the past couple of weeks, there have been three important developments on the central-banking front, including the first hike by the Fed in nine years (Chart 1). It is too soon to say with conviction, but are major central … Continued
Growth in U.S. corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments dipped into the negative territory in 3Q15 – both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion, they compared with $2.08 trillion in 2Q15 … Continued
Last week when October’s jobs report was published, there was one particular data point that really jumped out. The average hourly earnings of private-sector employees jumped 2.5 percent year-over-year, to $25.20 (Chart 1). This was the fastest rate employee earnings … Continued
At the start of the year, real GDP in the U.S. was expected to grow at three percent or better this year. Actual numbers are falling short – substantially. In the first three quarters, growth has been on a sub-two-percent … Continued
U.S. corporations have had their share of blame as relates to capital expenditures, wages, etc., but have done a commendable job when it comes to taking advantage of the prevailing low interest-rate environment. Corporate profits have come a long way. … Continued
Around the August lows in U.S. equities, several sentiment indicators looked washed out. For instance, the bulls’ count in Investors Intelligence’s survey dropped to 24.7 percent in the September 29th week – the lowest since late December 2008 (although bears … Continued
Through Wednesday, three major U.S. banks have reported third-quarter results, and if there is one common theme, it is the top line. There is no growth. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported revenues of $23.5 billion, versus $25.1 billion last year. For … Continued
“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the … Continued