In the early months of 2020, the Fed aggressively flooded the system with liquidity, meeting three times in March alone. That was the need of the hour. Now, it probably needs to act with a similar speed – only in … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. The Fed already has unlimited QE in place. Not much is expected to come out of this meeting. If anything, aware that low rates are needed, Mr. Powell may drop a hint or two that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 29, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 128.6k, up 46.4k. FOMC minutes for the September 15-16 meeting are due out Wednesday. Rates at that meeting were obviously left unchanged between zero … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 22, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 82.2k, up 67.4k. Several Fed officials this week stressed on the need for Congress to get its act together and provide fiscal help. This … Continued
Short squeeze of non-commercials in the futures market was a big factor behind the rally in the S&P 500 since mid-June. These traders have now targeted the Nasdaq 100. This has raised tech bulls’ hopes for a squeeze. But conditions … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 15, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 14.8k, up 5.3k. The Fed Wednesday said rates will stay zero-bound through the end of 2023. The fed funds rate in March was lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 8, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 9.5k, up 23k. The FOMC meets this week. After the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting, two more remain this year – November 4-5 and December 15-16. As … Continued
Gold just broke out of a massive base, suggesting much higher prices in the future. At the same time, its current pace of gains has a parabolic touch to it. A pullback to successfully retest the breakout will greatly strengthen … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29k, down 29.1k. Tuesday, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting. This will be the fifth of eight scheduled meetings this year. There were two … Continued
June’s CPI was reported yesterday. Inflation behaves well. This makes the Fed’s job easier to continue to pour liquidity into the system. All hell breaks loose once inflation refuses to cooperate – whenever that is. After three successive months of … Continued