In early April, the S&P 500 (2080.73) is rejected by a July 2015 declining trend line. After a subsequent slight pullback, the index reenergizes itself and goes for that resistance again. Last Thursday, it succeeds (Chart 1). But is the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Glass half full or half empty? Yet again, the IMF issued a downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth, cutting 2016 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The back and forth between the two camps within the FOMC continues. Last week, several members used public forums to express hawkish opinion … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 22, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: This could not get any funnier. A week after the FOMC statement, and later Janet Yellen, Fed chair, shifted message from hawkish to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 15, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Major central banks are in a race as to who can ‘shock and awe’ the markets the most. On January 29th, Haruhiko Kuroda, … Continued
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The above remark is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, although some dispute it. Regardless who said it, it is a nice quote. More … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given. They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued
Major U.S. indices are struggling at major resistance. Here are the levels indices were aiming to take out: Dow Industrials, 17000-plus; S&P 500, 1990; Nasdaq 100, 4350; Dow Transports, 7700; and Russell 2000, 1080, among others. The Industrials sought to … Continued
Since the February 11th low up until this Monday, if we just use small-caps to measure the pulse of investor mood, it has been risk-on. From that low through the intra-day high this week, the Russell 2000 rallied north of … Continued
U.S. stocks have come a long way since February 11th. Intra-day, off that low through last Friday’s high, here is how much major U.S. indices have rallied: Dow Industrials, 10.1 percent; S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1), 11 percent; … Continued