Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.1k, up 8.9k. The Federal Reserve’s job is not getting any easier. On Wednesday, post-FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell dropped hints that they were … Continued
Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
The next couple of weeks are big for tech earnings. MSFT, GOOG and AMZN report this week, and AAPL the next, among others. Leading into this, consensus estimates have trended lower, and stocks have rallied to multi-month highs. Concurrently, market … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, up 41k. Non-commercials added another 41,004 contracts to their already-elevated holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. The 680,081 count is the … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders are heavily on the short side. They can get forced to cover or get squeezed if equity longs had their way. It is not going to be easy for the latter. Having already spent a nice bit … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 639k, up 18k. The 10-year treasury yield (3.52 percent) dropped from 4.33 percent last October to the low six sessions ago of 3.25 percent. … Continued
Ahead of Wednesday’s March CPI and after a nice two- to three-week rally, sellers show up at important resistance on major US equity indices. With the daily in overbought territory, the bias is to the downside near term. Trader expectations … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 621k, up 149.5k. The FOMC minutes for the March 21-22 meeting come out on Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued
In March, The Nasdaq 100 jumped 9.5 percent. In contrast, the S&P 500 only managed to rally 3.5 percent, while the Russell 2000 small cap index gave back five percent. Tech’s outperformance comes at a time when economically sensitive small-caps … Continued