Last week, equity bulls owned the first two sessions, but only for bears to make a strong comeback as the week progressed, forming potentially bearish candles along the way. Right here and now, the bias is down. The two-day rally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 4, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 366.9k, up 1.7k. Wednesday brings FOMC minutes for the September 20-21 meeting. The fed funds rate was raised by 75 basis points in that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.2k, up 135.6k. Ae we there yet? Makes you wonder considering how the long end of the treasury yield curve has been behaving. The … Continued
US equities surprisingly were surprised by Powell’s hawkish message on Wednesday. He seems very determined to bring inflation down no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy. This will have repercussions for earnings, which then will reverberate through … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC, equities seem unsure about the next major move. At this stage, markets want Powell and team to take the fed funds rate north of four percent by year-end. If the Fed manages to sound even … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.3k, down 63.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had yet another opportunity this week to convince the markets that he and his team are … Continued
VIX took a dive on Wednesday after getting denied at 27.50s for several sessions. Concurrently, Investors Intelligence bulls plunged 15.4 percentage points over two weeks to sub-30 percent, and the Hedgopia Risk Reward Index is rising from oversold territory. Equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 30, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 440.1k, up 58.9k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday seemed to have done the trick. At the symposium, he strongly … Continued