Stocks Caught Between Seasonal Tailwind And Multiples Headwind

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

This could very well be setting up like a tug of war between favorable seasonals and elevated multiples, with possible retest of make-or-break 2120 on the S&P 500 large cap index. Going back to 2009 when the bull market erupted, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy.  So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued

July Foreign Purchases of US Equities Turn +VE – One-Off, Driven By S&P 500 Breakout, Or Something Else?

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

In July’s Treasury International Capital System data released last Friday, there was one particular data point equity bulls were probably happy to see. Global investors purchased $26.1 billion in U.S. equities in that month.  This was the highest monthly purchase … Continued

Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance Up Near Term, Not So Medium Term

As of last Friday, only 32.6 percent of S&P 500 stocks were above 50-day moving average, earlier having dropped to 29.8 percent on Wednesday.  This compares to 22 percent on June 27 (orange arrow in Chart 1) when the S&P … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016.   10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued

Covering ITB Short – For Now

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Next week brings three important housing-related data points: the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (September), existing home sales (August), and housing starts (August). In July, starts rose 2.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.21 million units, … Continued

XLY Short Cover … Another Shorting Opportunity Probable Soon

There is not much correlation between the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index and year-over-year change in personal consumption expenditures – mere 0.12 going back to January 1978 (chart here).  Nor is there any between consumer sentiment and XLY, the … Continued