The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 13 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. Dollar index and E-mini S&P 500 are noticeable. 10-year note: Did non-commercials get squeezed a little this week? By Tuesday, the 10-year yield had dropped … Continued
Bounces are normal within established downtrends 2015 starts out lousy; selling/shorting rallies ka-ching so far this year Should Draghi disappoint next week and U.S. stocks get sold, weakness probably gets bought For ardent believers of “as goes January, so goes … Continued
November job openings in U.S. non-farm payroll at yet another high As of December, not much change in momentum in oil and extraction jobs Job openings in mining and logging peaked in July and is sideways/down since Job openings enable … Continued
Technically strong dollar bumping against two-decade-long resistance Trend-following hedge funds’ net longs in dollar index futures highest ever To watch out for: rise in odds of no rate hikes in U.S. and ECB QE disappointment Not a single day goes … Continued
Stocks need fuel to rise. Be it plain-vanilla inflows, be it rotation from other asset classes like bonds, be it corporate buybacks, or be it squeezed shorts. The latter has played a big role particularly since the October 15th bottom … Continued
True to ‘when it rains, it pours,’ Goldman turns bearish on oil Sustained low price will reverberate through oil earnings, jobs, capex Technicals have probably already spoken; WTI unable to save 16-year support Remember Arjun Murti? He was a Goldman … Continued
Should not come as a shock that wage growth for U.S. workers is in doldrums Beneath ‘all hunky dory’ headlines, there are cracks in labor market In corporate vs. labor today, former price setter, latter taker The five-cent month-over-month drop … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 6th (Tuesday). Dollar and ten-year notes jump out the most. 10-year note: Substantial net shorts have been built up. In the prior week, large speculators were most short since mid-May … Continued
U.S. rig counts have continued to drop since September This is yet to negatively impact well-paying oil and gas jobs Although weekly hours of support activities peaked in Mar last year U.S. rig counts are on the decline. As of … Continued
Draghi drops credible (?) hints Eurozone QE is coming QE no panacea for economy, only a vehicle for transfer of bond ownership Investor reaction post-announcement key, as net shorts in euro futures remain very high “This may imply adjusting the … Continued