The Fed is using both conventional and unconventional tools to deal with surging inflation. This is bound to impact economic activity, which is already showing signs of deceleration. Inflation could be the next shoe to drop. Any signs of this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 5, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 170.5k, down 11.2k. FOMC minutes for the June 14-15 meeting – released this week – showed members’ sole focus at present remains on inflation. … Continued
Corporate bond issuance is on pace to decline 14.3 percent this year. This comes at a time when corporations have been aggressively buying back shares. With six months in, US corporate bond issuance remains soft. In June, corporations issued $73.2 … Continued
Next week, the 2Q earnings season begins in earnest. Equities took a big hit in the first half. The sell-side is yet to bring out scissors as relates to 2022/2023 earnings estimates. It will be even more disappointing if corporate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 28, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 181.7k, down 46.5k. A couple of weeks after forming a weekly shooting star, it is looking more and more likely that the 10-year treasury … Continued
After a slight breach of support in the week before, both small- and large-cap bulls put their foot down last week. This came after weeks of selling pressure. There is more room to run. Non-commercials are aggressively short and can … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 21, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 228.2k, up 22.7k. Jerome Powell this week testified on monetary policy in front of Congress. Just last week, after raising the fed funds rate … Continued
A new high was established in S&P 500 buybacks in 1Q. Unlike most of the time in the past, shares were bought at lower prices as the S&P 500 sold off during the quarter. In the four quarters to March, … Continued
With a couple of tough weeks, both large- and small-caps last week suffered a slight breach of support, but not decisively just yet. Concurrently, VIX is flashing signs of fatigue. For equity bulls, if there is going to be a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 14, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 205.5k, down 60.7k. The Federal Reserve this week raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5 percent to … Continued