VIX just rallied to a seven-month high. At the same time, it struggled to hang on to the gains in the past couple of sessions. The recent surge has pushed it into overbought territory, which could very well be in … Continued
Things are fluid – very fluid. Headlines are changing fast, so is market reaction. From currency to trade to Fed policy to the economy, traders are having a hard time keeping up. Technicals help particularly in times like this. The … Continued
Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
The Fed eased. This was expected. Chair Powell suggested it is not going to be a long rate-cutting campaign. This was unexpected. US equities took it on the chin Wednesday, and look vulnerable, particularly if bulls are unable to defend … Continued
Later today, the Fed will have cut its policy rate. Historically, this correlates with how both the economy and stocks perform – down. Later today, the Fed will have eased – probably by 25 basis points, to a range of … Continued
Large-caps keep making new highs. Should small-caps, which currently sit at crucial juncture, manage to break out, risk-on sentiment can get a tailwind, driving several indicators – already extended – to dangerously extended territory. US equity indices keep making new … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.2k, up 32.9k. Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased, probably by 25 basis points to a range of 200 to 225 basis points. … Continued
Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased. Besides being a first cut in nearly 11 years, the move has the potential to also impact the bank’s balance sheet and commercial bank earnings. The Fed is all set to reduce its … Continued
Margin debt fully cooperated with a 6.9-percent June rally in the S&P 500. Bulls obviously hope this continues this month. They would also want to see the recent increase in bullish investor sentiment pick up steam. After dropping 6.6 percent … Continued