IWM is breaking down, losing one after another support. Amidst this, the daily is grossly oversold. A bounce can happen – or not. This perhaps creates an opportunity for a non-directional trade involving options. Small-caps are taking it on the … Continued
Next week, 3Q18 earnings season gets underway. Estimates are a little lower than when the quarter began. This should help companies meet/beat numbers. Elsewhere, year-over-year growth in 2018 estimates has peaked. Historically, this has had repercussions for the S&P 500. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 25, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 756.3k, up 71.6k. Markets versus the Fed. Odds of a collision next year continue to rise. Post-FOMC meeting this week, the dot plot kept … Continued
Wednesday, the Fed hiked by 25 basis points and the FOMC dot plot continued to forecast another hike this year and three more next. The 10-year T-rate lost four basis points in that session. It increasingly looks like $116 on … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the September 4-14 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (59.40) short interest is at an eight-month high. On September 20, the ETF was … Continued
In the midst of a flattening yield curve, the 10-year T-yield is once again hammering on resistance at just north of three percent. Just a month ago, these notes yielded 2.81 percent. At least a pause is due, raising the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 684.7k, up 2k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.07 percent) has once again reached a battle zone. The last time these notes yielded just north … Continued
On an absolute basis, margin debt remains huge, but has not grown much this year. Except for corporate buybacks, margin debt, along with other sources of buying power, have softened. The S&P 500 large cap index jumped three percent in … Continued
The 10-year Treasury yield is at it again, trying to convincingly break out of just north of three percent. Shorts have done very well in the past year. They will mint money should a breakout occur. A lack thereof also … Continued
US equity bears had an excellent opportunity to push prices lower. Indices did come under pressure. But it looks like once again bulls managed to put their foot down on time. The S&P 500 large cap index made a new … Continued