Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 116.1k, up 31.7k. As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week. This was a third straight cut … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 84.4k, down 15.3k. Next week, the FOMC meets. Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ease. Futures traders are betting with a 93.5-percent probability that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity. Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 122.6k, down 41.1k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.75 percent) put in a higher low. On September 3, rates fell to 1.43 percent, which was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
Gold has regained its shine. Sort of. In the past three months, the metal has rallied 23 percent. At the same time, it is running into important resistance, including Fibonacci and eight-year horizontal. The metal likely takes a breather near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued