Inability of offensives to take the lead has been a thorn in the side of rally since Oct 15th low Outperformance last week of XLY vs. XLP and HYG vs. LQD sign of trend change? Duel on between seasonally favorable … Continued
The ratio of VIX to VXV is below 0.80 in early trading today. Early October, it was grossly overbought and was begging us to go long stocks. Now it is the opposite. Near-term volatility has collapsed. In the past, whenever … Continued
Ahead of ECB meeting, euro misery continues Draghi under pressure to deliver news of more stimulus Large speculators look tentative and sitting on massive net shorts When early October, FXE, the euro ETF, was unable to hold on to 126-127, … Continued
Gold bears had big opportunity to push price lower on Monday Technicals acting better, except near-term conditions little overbought How hedge funds were reacting to Friday/Monday action will be a good tell Monday, gold had a solid excuse to melt … Continued
Small-caps continue to lag their larger brethren RUT sitting on three-month resistance, breakout could be crucial Breakout not probable as bulls have already used up plenty of energy past five weeks Enough ink has been spilled over the issue of … Continued
Gold continues to show improved price/volume action Not-so-good news on Swiss vote probably overcome by Dutch repatriation news Trend-following hedge funds added to net longs in gold futures, by both raising longs and cutting shorts As suggested a week ago … Continued
VIX:VXV itching to move higher, which could put stocks under pressure VIX suggests calm, but SKEW points to institutions buying tail-risk protection Put-to-call ratios have had extreme readings past several sessions on both CBOE, ISE The S&P 500 Large Cap … Continued
Improvement in gold’s price action in recent sessions Key will be if non-commercials begin to add to net long gold futures Looks to be bottoming, but still tentative; short GLD puts safe way to go for now Gold ($1,187.9) is … Continued
Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
For second week running, hedge funds stayed net long VIX futures Three times since 2009 when this has happened, equities have gone on to rally Ideal scenario: SPX goes lower and successfully tests 1900, just in time for year-end rally … Continued