Bounces are normal within established downtrends 2015 starts out lousy; selling/shorting rallies ka-ching so far this year Should Draghi disappoint next week and U.S. stocks get sold, weakness probably gets bought For ardent believers of “as goes January, so goes … Continued
Technically strong dollar bumping against two-decade-long resistance Trend-following hedge funds’ net longs in dollar index futures highest ever To watch out for: rise in odds of no rate hikes in U.S. and ECB QE disappointment Not a single day goes … Continued
True to ‘when it rains, it pours,’ Goldman turns bearish on oil Sustained low price will reverberate through oil earnings, jobs, capex Technicals have probably already spoken; WTI unable to save 16-year support Remember Arjun Murti? He was a Goldman … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 6th (Tuesday). Dollar and ten-year notes jump out the most. 10-year note: Substantial net shorts have been built up. In the prior week, large speculators were most short since mid-May … Continued
Draghi drops credible (?) hints Eurozone QE is coming QE no panacea for economy, only a vehicle for transfer of bond ownership Investor reaction post-announcement key, as net shorts in euro futures remain very high “This may imply adjusting the … Continued
Russell 2000 suffers false breakout before retreating quickly Hedge funds not showing much interest in going net long RUT futures With 200DMA one percent away, small-cap bulls have opportunity to put foot down The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is … Continued
Rather quick deterioration in momentum in U.S. stocks From sentiment to Greece to $, worrywarts have plenty of things to worry about Next couple of days will be crucial for bulls to step in and try not to let things … Continued
On Monday while discussing the dynamics between the dollar and U.S. trade/current account balances, one of the charts did not use the latest data. Due to the holiday last week, the CFTC reported this week futures positions ended the 23rd … Continued
10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid. A … Continued
After impressive two-day advance, Russell 2000 on verge of bullish golden cross Potential unwinding of VIX surge of early this week to act as tailwind for stocks In the end, rally nothing but gift for patient bears to short from … Continued