Whipsaws aplenty; difficulty distinguishing signal from noise

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Put-to-call ratios, VIX:VXV point to potential selling pressure in stocks But large specs expecting lower VIX not in agreement with peers betting on lower SPX Task of separating wheat from chaff – which signal to treat as signal and which … Continued

Option strategy to benefit from laid-back XLE versus chirpy WTI

Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude broke out of 54 mid-April, it has continued to add to gains, even as XLE, the energy SPDR ETF, has gone sideways/down. Since that major push through four-month consolidation in the middle of April, … Continued

U.S. Dollar Under Pressure: What’s Next And How To Trade It

A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals.  While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week?  The latter meets on 28-29.  For the most part, macro data … Continued

Bear call spread, to benefit from potential pressure on XLE near-term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

XLE ($82.22), the energy ETF, seems to want to go lower near-term. Since the mid-January low of $71.22, it has carved out a pattern of higher lows, and higher highs, hence now finds itself in a slightly upward sloping channel.  … Continued