Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 72.3k, down 14.7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.73 percent) is itching to break out of a five-and-a-half-month rectangle between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. … Continued
The recovery in the economy from recent lows has been uneven. In equities, the S&P 500 (large cap) rallied to a new high last Friday, while the Russell 2000 (small cap) was rejected at a crucial resistance. Amidst this, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 87k, up 81.5k. Last Thursday’s intraday high of 0.73 percent just about tested the upper bound of a five-month range, in which rates went … Continued
Foreigners in the aggregate have been dumping Treasury notes and bonds. The Fed has been buying these securities, but less and less so. Given the soaring budget deficit and the need to issue new debt, the status quo cannot continue. … Continued
Economic data are coming in mixed after recent lows. In the aggregate, there is no V as far as the economy is concerned. In contrast, the S&P 500 completed a perfect V, which came about over six months. As things … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 5.5k, down 86.6k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.71 percent) had a strong week, up 15 basis points, but not enough for a range breakout. … Continued
The euro just broke out of a falling trend line from April 2008. It has rallied the past four and a half months, pushing the daily and weekly in particular into overbought territory. In the futures market, non-commercials, in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 92.1k, up 18.9k. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in the week to June 10 at $7.17 trillion, up nearly $3 trillion in three months. … Continued
Orders activity in manufacturing have snapped back with a V shape. But this recovery is not uniformly seen across the economy. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft dropped y/y in March through June; in past recessions, the decline has been … Continued
Gold just broke out of a massive base, suggesting much higher prices in the future. At the same time, its current pace of gains has a parabolic touch to it. A pullback to successfully retest the breakout will greatly strengthen … Continued