Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 61.2k, down 68.2k. Markets took this week’s FOMC meeting well. Stocks recovered after heavy losses in the first two sessions. Bonds sold off, with … Continued
Major US equity indices declined for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 breached the 50-day last week, albeit slightly. Interestingly, both VIX and small-caps diverged. This is taking place at a time when the FOMC is meeting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 14, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 129.4k, up 128.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the 6th scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one in … Continued
At a time when the Fed is getting ready to taper its purchases of treasury bonds, foreigners are warming up to these securities. The 10-year yield cannot break through low-1.40s resistance. In July, foreigners bought $10.2 billion in treasury notes … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 7, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 780, up 30.6k. Once again on Tuesday, the 10-year treasury yield faced stiff resistance at just under 1.4 percent; the session high 1.39 percent … Continued
Job openings are at record highs. Of its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, the Fed is singlehandedly focused on the former, being oblivious to rising consumer prices. If these openings get gradually filled, resulting in continued upward … Continued
Last week, the VIX index and the S&P 500 moved together – a rare occurrence. At least near term, the former seems to be itching to move up and the latter down. Medium- to long-term, how tapering evolves, and its … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 31, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 29.8k, up 143.1k. Twice in August, the 10-year treasury yield retreated after ticking 1.38 percent. This was just before testing broken-support-turned-resistance at low-1.40s. Back … Continued
US home prices continue to rise at an accelerating pace but may be in the process of cooling down. This can have implications for consumer sentiment, hence consumer spending. In June, home prices nationally shot up 18.6 percent year-over-year. This … Continued
As Jerome Powell indicated imminent tapering but not rate hikes, small-caps were bid up last Friday. The Russell 2000 is rangebound within a rectangle. A breakout can cause short squeeze. Should one occur, bulls need cooperation from the A-D line. … Continued