Dollar seems finally ready to come under pressure

Contrary message from U.S. dollar and bonds as to prospects for interest-rate hike by Fed Latest Humphrey-Hawkins testimony shows Chair Janet Yellen leaning dovish Hedge funds are neck-deep in bullish dollar bets, expecting higher rates Currency and bond markets are … Continued

Resistance difficult to break through, WTI probably wants to go lower at least N/T

North American oil rig count drops 37 percent in four months Historically, oil inventory has tended to peak well after peak in rig count WTI unable to take out $53.50-$54 resistance; near-term, path of least resistance down One of the … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 17 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield had been trending down within a channel since it peaked on December 30, 2013 at three percent.  Early this year, … Continued

Introducing Hedgopia Risk Reward Index, and it is telling us risk is rising

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equities are choppy.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2099.68) is essentially flat for the week.  Participation is thin.  Volume is anemic.  Fresh on the heels of last week’s breakouts, indices are trying to build on those gains.  But conviction … Continued

Breakouts deserve respect, successful test will validate move

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst deteriorating U.S. earnings picture and geopolitical uncertainty, stocks resilient Major indices break out, but how much buying power did bulls expend? Breakouts deserve respect, unless they are proven false Are U.S. equities trying to tell us something? Almost out … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week.  Daily indicators are now grossly overbought.  It is also right at … Continued

XLY, RTH break out — will consumers splurge gas windfall?

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Retail sales soft in Jan – first back-to-back m/m drop since mid-12 Consumers not quite ready to do away with savings from low gas price XLY, RTH break out, betting consumers will end up spending gas windfall U.S. retail sales … Continued

U.S. exports can least afford to weaken further, given increasing role in GDP

posted in: Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

Growth rate of U.S. exports decelerating since 2Q14 At north of 13 percent, exports’ share of GDP remains very high Surging $ no good news for exports; some signs of fatigue, but buck’s momentum intact The advance estimate of real … Continued

A peek into future through the futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 3 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield has risen from 1.65 to 1.94 in five sessions.  But it also dropped 52 basis points in January, and that … Continued

10-year Treasury yield seems to want to head higher for now

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

10-yr Treasury yield rises, diverging from loads of weaker-than-expected macro data recently There is no shortage of reason to argue for lower yield, even so sentiment can get extended Levels bond bulls will be drawn to if they believe rates … Continued