Major US equity indices all had a positive week last week, but with a varying degree of success. The S&P 500 broke out of dual resistance with bullish marubozu on Thursday and Friday, the Russell 2000 was denied at crucial … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 156k, up 14.7k. Last Friday’s high of 1.62 percent on the 10-year treasury yield represents a lower high versus 1.77 percent posted in March … Continued
The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 141.3k, down 39.9k. Minutes for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting are due out next Wednesday. During the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell set the stage … Continued
On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued
Investor sentiment has taken a hit in recent weeks but can continue lower in the right circumstances, although a pause is likely right here and now, helping stocks. Stocks took it on the nose in September. The S&P 500 tumbled … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 181.2k, up 120k. In February last year, the 10-year treasury yield breached mid-1.40s, before tumbling to bottom at 0.4 percent in the following month. … Continued
The 50-day on the S&P 500 was once again defended. Households’ equity exposure is on course for yet another high in 3Q, even as margin debt jumped to yet another record in August. Amidst these signs of excesses, the Fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 61.2k, down 68.2k. Markets took this week’s FOMC meeting well. Stocks recovered after heavy losses in the first two sessions. Bonds sold off, with … Continued
Amid interesting developments relating to a couple of dividend metrics, the S&P 500 quickly shed 5.3 percent from high to low this month and is just underneath crucial support-turned resistance. The S&P 500 quickly shed 5.3 percent in 12 sessions, … Continued