Things are slowing down. From job creation to real GDP, there are signs of deceleration. CEOs are beginning to sound pessimistic. Often, this can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Amidst this comes the sell-side’s overly optimistic estimates for small-cap operating … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield more than doubled in five months, completing a measured-move target of an inverse-head-and-shoulders breakout in early January. This is coming at a time when the Fed has signaled it will use both conventional and unconventional tools … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 476.6k, up 212.7k. FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting are scheduled for Wednesday. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. Stocks are adjusting to an increasingly hawkish Fed, which is belatedly alarmed by the persistently rising inflation. At some point, the long end of the treasury yield curve is likely to cry uncle, putting earnings … Continued
Last week’s hawkish FOMC minutes sent stocks lower. The Fed not only is accelerating the recently-begun tapering of bond purchases but also getting ready to hike rates. Chances are it will also begin to shrink its bloated balance sheet in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 14, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 273.9k, up 6.9k. Once again, markets forced the Fed’s hands. Until this week’s FOMC meeting, futures traders were betting that the central bank would … Continued
There were new highs all around last week. But after having rallied huge in the past month, major equity indices are not sending one uniform message. A reprieve is due, even as volatility is getting ready to perk up – … Continued
On FOMC day, major equity indices posted fresh highs. Bulls were assured by Chair Powell that the Fed will start tapering but is in no rush to take the interest-rate punch bowl away. Yet another session, yet another high! On … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 61.2k, down 68.2k. Markets took this week’s FOMC meeting well. Stocks recovered after heavy losses in the first two sessions. Bonds sold off, with … Continued
At a time when the Fed is getting ready to taper its purchases of treasury bonds, foreigners are warming up to these securities. The 10-year yield cannot break through low-1.40s resistance. In July, foreigners bought $10.2 billion in treasury notes … Continued