August’s CPI report dealt a fatal blow to market hopes for a 50-basis-point cut next week. Nevertheless, futures traders are betting that the Fed would lower rates by 250 basis points in the next one year, beginning with 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued
With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 3, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 733.9k, up 1.9k. The FOMC minutes for the September 19-20 meeting will be reported on Wednesday. As expected, the fed funds rate was left … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 801k, up 51k. FOMC minutes for the June 13-14 meeting are due out Wednesday. In that meeting, after raising the fed funds rate uninterrupted … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 753.7k, down 96.7k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. After raising the fed funds rate by 500 basis points since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.6k, down 99.5k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year-note futures by nearly 100,000 contracts this week, to 471,578. In the week to February 28, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 411.4k, up 27.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has his hands full. He wants to slow down the US economy to bring inflation under … Continued
Last week, equity bulls owned the first two sessions, but only for bears to make a strong comeback as the week progressed, forming potentially bearish candles along the way. Right here and now, the bias is down. The two-day rally … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC, equities seem unsure about the next major move. At this stage, markets want Powell and team to take the fed funds rate north of four percent by year-end. If the Fed manages to sound even … Continued