US Manufacturing has contracted for three months now. Markets are not a least bit bothered. They are hoping the Fed’s three rate cuts this year would boost a decelerating economy. In the futures market, non-commercials are betting with record net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 116.1k, up 31.7k. As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week. This was a third straight cut … Continued
The S&P 500 is itching to make a new high. The Nasdaq 100 achieved that feat last Friday. Lowered earnings estimates for the third quarter went a long way, among others. Bulls have momentum right now. Medium- to long-term, massive … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 84.4k, down 15.3k. Next week, the FOMC meets. Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ease. Futures traders are betting with a 93.5-percent probability that … Continued
Amid continued signs of macro deceleration, next year’s estimates for small-caps continue higher. The Russell 2000 index, however, is not quite buying this optimism. Last week, it led its large-cap peers, but remains under crucial resistance. Should small-caps come under … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 122.6k, down 41.1k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.75 percent) put in a higher low. On September 3, rates fell to 1.43 percent, which was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued
August for the most part saw bulls buy support and bears sell resistance. This worked out pretty well for both camps. In essence, after a late-July/early-August brief selloff, both put their foot down. Last week, major US equity indices rallied … Continued