Range-bound action continues on major US equity indices. After defense of support last Thursday, they gapped up Mon to rally right into resistance. No breakout yet. This is taking place in the wake of massive rallies off of the March … Continued
Last week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 respectively fell 2.3 percent, 0.7 percent and 5.5 percent. Bulls’ consolation is that the indices were down a lot more at Thursday’s lows and that they were able to defend … Continued
Stocks have diverged from sharp deterioration in fundamentals. At the lows, several indicators were at washout levels, resulting in the massive rally that followed. But at this point in time, they may be responding more to the Fed’s monetary backstop … Continued
Investors Intelligence bulls fell further this week, with bears jumping to an eight-plus-year high. The options market, too, shows fear has set in. Odds of a bear market rally have grown. Investors Intelligence bulls further fell this week, down 4.5 … Continued
No one rang the bell when the longest bull in US stock market history came to an end last month. The drop was swift and decisive. Several oversold metrics are itching to get unwound. But markets are in panic mode. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.6k, up 57.9k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This follows a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, to a range of 100 to 125 … Continued
Bears are making a killing. Stocks have come under renewed selling pressure. The S&P 500 is very close to losing 20 percent on a closing basis. Amidst this, fresh from a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, the FOMC meets … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 223.6k, up 44.3k. Bond bulls and bears continue to fight over control of trend-line support from early September when the 10-year Treasury yield (1.84 … Continued
Elevated multiples have not bothered equity bulls. In recent months, the Fed too has come to their aid. Investor optimism is dangerously elevated going into the 4Q19 earnings season. The 4Q19 earnings season kicks off this week. Banks and brokers … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 179.2k, down 55.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.83 percent) was rejected at 1.95-1.97 percent in both November and December. The drop since found support … Continued