Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued
U.S. multinationals can breathe a little easier. Maybe. Exports are under pressure… it has been that way for a while now. Nominally, U.S. exports of goods and services peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14, … Continued
U.S. exports have been under pressure since they peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14; 2Q15 was $2.28 trillion. As a percent of nominal GDP, exports’ share in 2Q15 was a full percentage point lower … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued
Exports’ share in U.S. GDP not as high as industrialized peers but increasingly important Fed’s rate-hike-this-year message significant tailwind for greenback’s relentless rally Fed officials not enamored of buck surge; how long before they start jawboning? There is a wide … Continued
Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued
Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil … Continued
Growth rate of U.S. exports decelerating since 2Q14 At north of 13 percent, exports’ share of GDP remains very high Surging $ no good news for exports; some signs of fatigue, but buck’s momentum intact The advance estimate of real … Continued