CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 787k, down 45.6k. The 200-day moving average (4.06 percent), which coincides with horizontal resistance at 4.1 percent, is standing like a rock. Since this … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Retreats Shortly After Eclipsing Nov ’21 Record, S&P 500 Comes Within Spitting Distance of Jan ’22 Peak

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Equities stumble out of the 2024 blocks. In the final sessions of December, the major US indices had either just broken out to new highs or were close to doing that. It remains to be seen if the weakness since … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued

Bond Shorts Betting On Higher Yields Probably Right Tactically But Not Strategically

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Something is afoot in the bond land – in how bond shorts are viewing things. They have used the sharp decline in the 10-year T-yield post-December 13th FOMC meeting to aggressively go short these notes, betting on higher rates. They … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued

Small-Caps Rallied Big On Fed Pivot; Now, 3 FOMC Members Are Warning Markets Not To Get Carried Away With Rate-Cut Hopes Next Year

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-caps rallied huge last week in reaction to the so-called Fed pivot. That said, no sooner did Powell deliver that message last Wednesday, leading to futures traders now demanding six cuts next year, than three different FOMC members came out … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued

Equities Surge Last Week Post-CPI, Staring At Crucial Resistance Amidst Lagging Breadth

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Last Thursday’s CPI report lit a fire under US stocks. It was as if the FoMO phenomenon was in play in a seasonally strong period. But it is early to adopt a full risk-on mode. By Friday, the S&P 500 … Continued