Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 744.3k, down 47.2k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the sixth scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one each in … Continued
The 2Q earnings season begins next week in earnest. The bar is low. Ahead of this, large-caps are leading but economically-sensitive small-caps are lagging. The latter likely is eyeing the 500-basis-point rise in the fed funds rate since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 801k, up 51k. FOMC minutes for the June 13-14 meeting are due out Wednesday. In that meeting, after raising the fed funds rate uninterrupted … Continued
Both large- and small-caps failed at crucial resistance last week. Investor focus shifted toward fundamentals that could wobble in the months and quarters ahead. The upward move in equities since last October’s low was a technical move, unwinding the oversold … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 20, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 750k, up 58.1k. The Bank of England’s unexpected 50-basis-point hike on Thursday to five percent highlights central bankers’ increasing frustration with inflation that is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 13, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.9k, down 61.8k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures for the second week in a row. In the last couple of weeks, … Continued
The FOMC dot plot yesterday surprised many with expectations of two more 25-basis-point hikes by December. Futures traders are only betting on one hike in July. Several times over the last several months, they have been forced to readjust; odds … Continued
Leading up to the 4Q22 earnings reporting season, the sell-side continues to wax enthusiastic about this year’s earnings prospects. The enthusiasm looks improbable considering the meaningful rise in interest rates last year is all set to filter through to the … Continued
Foreigners seem to be heavily wagering that the US is headed for a recession. They have been selling US stocks and buying treasury notes/bonds with aggression. On a net basis in October, foreigners sold $24.4 billion in US stocks. Since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 199.9k, up 83.9k. The FOMC this week delivered what officials had telegraphed the rate-setting body would do. The fed funds rate was raised by … Continued