Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 30, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.4k, down 10k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets dropped $31.4 billion from record $8.7 trillion a week ago. In early March … Continued
There were new highs all around last week. But after having rallied huge in the past month, major equity indices are not sending one uniform message. A reprieve is due, even as volatility is getting ready to perk up – … Continued
On FOMC day, major equity indices posted fresh highs. Bulls were assured by Chair Powell that the Fed will start tapering but is in no rush to take the interest-rate punch bowl away. Yet another session, yet another high! On … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 26, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 114.8k, up 114.3k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s seventh meeting. After this, one more remain. At the September 21-22 meeting, … Continued
Bond bears likely view the imminent tapering of T-notes/bonds as a tailwind to their outlook but not foreigners’ recent increased purchases of these securities. Bond bears are probably not happy how things seem to be unfolding in the supply-demand dynamics … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 156k, up 14.7k. Last Friday’s high of 1.62 percent on the 10-year treasury yield represents a lower high versus 1.77 percent posted in March … Continued
The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 61.2k, down 68.2k. Markets took this week’s FOMC meeting well. Stocks recovered after heavy losses in the first two sessions. Bonds sold off, with … Continued
Major US equity indices declined for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 breached the 50-day last week, albeit slightly. Interestingly, both VIX and small-caps diverged. This is taking place at a time when the FOMC is meeting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 14, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 129.4k, up 128.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the 6th scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one in … Continued