Amidst households’ equity allocation at a fresh record and continued support from margin debt, large-cap indices are giving out signs of fatigue, while small-caps are quick off the blocks in 2026. Margin debt and the S&P 500 tend to have … Continued
After back-to-back 20-percent gains in 2024 and 2023, the S&P 500 is up another 12 percent this year. Its market cap is near $59 trillion. Several valuation multiples are either elevated or at fresh records, even as households’ equity allocation … Continued
The major equity indices are building on breakout that took place two weeks ago. This comes amidst already-high valuation multiples and near-record equity allocation by US households. However, with the 2Q earnings reporting season about to get underway, investor sentiment … Continued
The S&P 500 is up north of 27 percent year-to-date – the second consecutive year of gains of north of 20 percent. Buybacks and margin debt are cooperating, but several other measures are pointing to extended conditions. With 10 sessions … Continued
The S&P 500 sits less than a percent from its July high and is positioned well for a breakout. The Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 are nowhere near their respective highs, but they too have breakout opportunities to add … Continued
As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
It is probable US households’ equity allocation set a new high last quarter. Stocks have relentlessly rallied for over five months – without so much of a correction. With investor sentiment looking frothy, bulls are increasingly running out of tailwinds … Continued
Since last October’s bottom in stocks, trillions in additional wealth have been added. Prices headed north, even as earnings headed south, helping push up multiples. This also makes equity bulls, who are sitting on loads of paper profit, jittery, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued