That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable. That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable. What is debatable … Continued
Following up on Tuesday’s blog, here is some additional food of thought on XLY, the SPDR consumer discretionary ETF. Three sessions ago, it arguably broke out of a five-week congestion; the ETF rose to a new intra-day high of $82.38, … Continued
U.S. equities continue to enjoy short-interest tailwind, but are likely to face difficulty doing so in the weeks to come. In the latest period, on an index level, short interest continued to drop. The July 15-29 two-week period saw it … Continued
Breakouts galore in U.S. equity indices! The S&P 500 large cap index broke out to a new all-time high on July 11th, and has since made several more highs. The breakout came after having gone sideways since essentially February 2015 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 2, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Mixed messages from two major central banks! On Friday last week, Haruhiko Kuroda, BoJ governor, decided not to live up to markets’ lofty … Continued
A crucial test probably lies ahead for the S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1). The index, trapped in a sideways pattern since essentially February last year, broke out nearly a month ago – potentially a huge development, with the … Continued
July turned out to be an important month for the S&P 500 large cap index. More than a year after it peaked in May last year, the index reached a new high, rising 3.6 percent for the month. The July … Continued
Much ado about nothing! Pretty much. There was much talk of short squeeze primarily contributing to the rally in stocks in the June 30-July 15 period, but, as it turns out, at least on an index level, that was not … Continued
It has been a while since U.S. small-caps reached a new high (arrow in Chart 1). The Russell 2000 small cap index (1209.74) peaked in June last year at 1296. Small-caps have massively underperformed large-caps. Both the S&P 500 large … Continued
Next week’s economic calendar is housing-heavy. Monday brings the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for July, Tuesday housing starts for June, and Thursday existing home sales for June. Builder sentiment remained stuck at 58 for four months through May, before … Continued