Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued
Since early May, stocks have come under pressure. Investors sentiment similarly is on the back foot. But it will be a while before bullish sentiment reaches a washout low. US stocks came under pressure as soon as May began. From … Continued
There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities. Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week. Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult. Overbought … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Before large-caps were sold early May, traders were already gravitating toward risk-off. Stocks have rallied the past couple of sessions, but there are still no signs of full-on risk-on. Eight sessions ago, on May 6, the Russell 2000 small cap … Continued
Major US equity indices took a beating last week, but, thanks to Friday’s reversal, they closed substantially off their lows, defending crucial support and the 50-day. Concurrently, VIX suffered a spike reversal. It is equity bulls’ ball to lose near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
Trump trade Tweet-induced selloff in the S&P 500 was bought hand over fist Monday, even as the spike in VIX was sold. Volume was anemic, so there is not much conviction in this – either when the S&P 500 was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
For the first time in 29 weeks, the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears ratio crossed three. Having come after a nearly 26 percent rally in the S&P 500, this likely is not the beginning of a trend. Investors Intelligence bulls jumped three … Continued