Major equity indices hit the wall this week, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq losing a rising trend line from the March 23rd low. They rallied massively off of that low, and odds favor continued unwinding of daily … Continued
Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps. If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 70.8k, up 9.8k. The Fed is on a mission to provide a backstop to a whole host of assets. Here is its report card … Continued
Foreigners purchased more U.S. stocks in February. On the 19th that month, the S&P 500 peaked, before unraveling in March. How foreigners behaved in March therefore will be a tell. Should they turn defensive, this will have come at a … Continued
In less than a month, major U.S. stock indices have witnessed phenomenal rallies. This would be a lot healthier if risk-on metrics rallied right along. U.S. stocks have rallied massively off of last month’s lows. From the March 23rd bottom … Continued
Unless a coronavirus vaccine is miraculously developed at record time, a V-shaped recovery in the economy is not probable. Yet, stocks seem to be anticipating one. The Fed is flooding the system with liquidity. Stocks have rallied massively off of … Continued
If not for the intraday reversal, the S&P 500 Tuesday came very close to ending the ongoing bear market. Regardless how things shake out near term, at least until February, margin debt stood elevated – relatively speaking. In the prior … Continued
In the current bear market, the S&P 500 is down nearly 34 percent, which is the 8th worst out of 14 going back to 1929. It is too soon to say if THE low is in. After the March 23rd … Continued
NYSE and Nasdaq short interest jumped mid-March, to multi-year highs. Bears could not have ridden the latest crash in stocks any better. At the same time, bulls this week defended crucial support on both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, … Continued
The announcement of QE4 last week failed to stabilize stocks. This is unlike how they behaved during QE1/2/3. Fear rules. Just a month ago, greed did. Sentiment will reverse. Last week, major U.S. equity indices were once again slammed. Even … Continued