Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade. As they usually are. These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued
Tactical shorts in XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) have a decision to make. The ETF has essentially gone sideways the past couple of weeks. The bulls are staying put, having defended the 10-day moving average last Friday. Things can always … Continued
XLF shorts who are slightly underwater can use options to repair the damage. Hypothetically last Thursday, XLF ($28.06) was shorted intraday at $27.96 ($27.84 adjusted for dividends). Here was the thought process. The ETF remains overbought on nearly all timeframe. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 44.7k, up 30.4k. The Fed and the Administration are not on the same page when it comes to expected growth in the U.S. economy. … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the November 16-30 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) In a shooting star session on December 4, XLB (59.51) rose to a new all-time … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent. Are they sending … Continued
XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued
This week, Investors Intelligence bulls registered 60.4 percent. This was the highest since the week ended March 1 this year. Bears were 15.1 percent – the lowest since the week ended May 26, 2015. Particularly post-presidential election last November, investor … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 232.2k, down 24.5k. December looks like a lock. The odds in the futures market of a 25-basis-point hike in the 12-13th meeting that month … Continued