CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 26, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 114.8k, up 114.3k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s seventh meeting. After this, one more remain. At the September 21-22 meeting, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 19, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 544, up 156.6k. In the 12 months to August, foreigners purchased $3.8 billion in treasury notes and bonds. As recently as February this year, … Continued

10-Year T-Yield Caught Between Increased Demand Of Late From Foreigners And Imminent Tapering

posted in: Credit, Technicals | 0

Bond bears likely view the imminent tapering of T-notes/bonds as a tailwind to their outlook but not foreigners’ recent increased purchases of these securities. Bond bears are probably not happy how things seem to be unfolding in the supply-demand dynamics … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 156k, up 14.7k. Last Friday’s high of 1.62 percent on the 10-year treasury yield represents a lower high versus 1.77 percent posted in March … Continued

10-Tear T-Yield Likely Hit Its High In March

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 181.2k, up 120k. In February last year, the 10-year treasury yield breached mid-1.40s, before tumbling to bottom at 0.4 percent in the following month. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 61.2k, down 68.2k. Markets took this week’s FOMC meeting well. Stocks recovered after heavy losses in the first two sessions. Bonds sold off, with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 14, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 129.4k, up 128.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the 6th scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one in … Continued

It Will Be Tough To Brush Off Wage Push Inflation As Fed Has Consumer Inflation

posted in: Economy | 0

Job openings are at record highs. Of its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, the Fed is singlehandedly focused on the former, being oblivious to rising consumer prices. If these openings get gradually filled, resulting in continued upward … Continued

Last Week, VIX And S&P 500 Moved Hand In Hand; Volatility Is Itching To Move Up

Last week, the VIX index and the S&P 500 moved together – a rare occurrence. At least near term, the former seems to be itching to move up and the latter down. Medium- to long-term, how tapering evolves, and its … Continued