An argument can be made that spot VIX is in the middle of a saucer formation – also known as a rounding bottom. Chart 1 shows prior two such formations – one in the ‘90s and the other in the … Continued
The last time spot VIX closed under 13 for three consecutive sessions was in early August last year. In fact, VIX back then stayed sub-13 for four straight sessions ended August 3rd, and registered three more sub-13 readings by August … Continued
After a 13-session, heady rally off June 27th lows, U.S. stocks are beginning to reek of complacency. The question is, is it now time to turn contrarian or things might stay complacent for a little while longer? Take put-to-call ratios. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
Equity bulls put the foot down where they could possibly have. Support at 1990 on the S&P 500 large cap index was defended on Monday (Chart 1). This followed a post-Brexit 5.3-percent dive in just a couple of sessions. Using … Continued
From last week’s Thursday close through this Monday, the US dollar index jumped 3.4 percent. This was the sharpest two-session increase since it rallied 3.6 percent on September 29, 1992. That is how far back one has to go in … Continued
Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent. It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session. The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued