Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued

XLF breaks out, likely headed toward $24, if technicals prevail

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

A month ago, we pointed out a divergence between 10- and two-year Treasury yield spread, which peaked as 2013 was unwinding, and financial stocks, which had ceased to track the spread and were rallying.  Going back nearly 18 years, the … Continued

Nasdaq mini breakout, odds grow S&P 500 at least tests recent highs

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The Nasdaq Composite (4508.31)has managed to pull off a mini breakout, and is trading above the level identified previously.  As a matter of fact, indices/ETFs such as the S&P 500 Large Cap Index and XLF (financials) have convincingly taken out … Continued

Oversold bounce, or opportunity to go long?

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The rally the past couple of sessions, is it an oversold bounce or is there more to it than meets the eye?  Particularly on Monday, money did come out of defensives such as utilities and health care, and into offensives … Continued

Financials rally even as 10-2 spread narrows throughout 2014

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Depending on how mature an economic cycle is, different sectors, and industries within them, act differently.  Some lead, some lag, yet others are coincident.  Investors gravitate toward sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary when they are more optimistic and … Continued