Depending on what data point we are looking at, U.S. inventory ranges from inflated to balanced. In the third and fourth quarters last year, inventory reduction took away 0.71 percent and 0.22 percent from real GDP growth, respectively (Chart 1). … Continued
ITB, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. home construction ETF, has rallied strong the past couple of months. From the February 11th low through the intra-day high yesterday, it jumped north of 30 percent, rallying past its 50- and 200-day moving … Continued
Quite an anti-climax! Sunday’s Doha oil talks, that is. Even more so is how markets reacted on Monday. The much-hyped and much-hoped-for agreement for an output freeze/cut failed to materialize. Crude oil had rallied strongly into these talks, so a … Continued
In early April, the S&P 500 (2080.73) is rejected by a July 2015 declining trend line. After a subsequent slight pullback, the index reenergizes itself and goes for that resistance again. Last Thursday, it succeeds (Chart 1). But is the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Glass half full or half empty? Yet again, the IMF issued a downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth, cutting 2016 … Continued
The magnitude of the equity rally the past couple of months has surprised many. Off the February 11th low through Thursday’s high, the S&P 500 index rallied 15 percent. This, despite the fact that equity flows into U.S.-based funds have … Continued
The 1Q16 earnings season is upon us. So far, of the major names, Alcoa (AA) was a thumbs down, JP Morgan (JPM) a thumbs up. At least that was the verdict of the market. In general, the bar for the … Continued
From the euro’s perspective, March 10th was an interesting session. Mario Draghi, ECB president, pulled out his big bazooka that day. All interest rates were cut. The existing QE was expanded from €60-billion/month in purchases to €80 billion. And the … Continued
The equity rally that began on February 11th has brought bad news to the shorts. Obviously. They have two choices: (1) stay short, which means holding a losing trade, or (2) cover, which will add more fuel to the rally, … Continued
U.S. stocks look vulnerable here. The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued