US stocks have come under immense downward pressure of late. Amidst this came signs late last week that a relief was overdue. Several indicators are languishing in oversold territory, an unwinding of which could unleash upward pressure for stocks. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 10, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 86k, down 61.6k. It is probable the 10-year treasury yield made an important high this week. Rates touched 3.17 percent intraday Monday before reversing … Continued
Inflation is front and center, driving investor sentiment. April’s CPI report, out yesterday, proved expensive for equity bulls. The S&P 500 is down nearly 19 percent from its January high, even as the percent of stocks above the 50-day is … Continued
Blended 1Q S&P 600 earnings estimates took a nosedive in the week to last Wednesday. This preceded a deteriorating profit trend among small businesses since last October. The Russell 2000 has tumbled nearly 26 percent the past six months. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 3, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 147.5k, up 29.7k. “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we are moving expeditiously to bring it … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield more than doubled in five months, completing a measured-move target of an inverse-head-and-shoulders breakout in early January. This is coming at a time when the Fed has signaled it will use both conventional and unconventional tools … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.8k, down 214.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s third, and five more remain after this. In the March meeting, … Continued
The Nasdaq Composite is down 23 percent from its record high last November. Shorts have done exceedingly well, as short interest rose to a fresh high mid-April. Both the Composite, and the Nasdaq 100, closed Tuesday at a crucial level. … Continued
An oversold reflex rally is due in major US indices. This week, major tech outfits report their March quarter. This could act as a catalyst. If post-earnings reaction instead acts as a headwind, the FOMC meets on May 3-4. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 332.3k, up 32.4k. A 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate is pretty much sealed in the May 3-4 meeting. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve … Continued