Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 23, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 6.5k, up 17.4k. The Federal Reserve continued to reduce its assets this week. Since rising to a record $7.17 trillion two weeks ago, the … Continued
Once again, bulls were denied at 1450s on the Russell 2000 (1390). They have had massive gains since the March low, even as earnings estimates continue lower. A test of 1330s is the path of least resistance, followed by 1250s. … Continued
The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the global economy ferociously the past several months, although several data points showed improvement in May, some of them substantially. US retail sales was one of them. Persistently elevated home prices must be helping consumer sentiment. … Continued
In the last few weeks, money has moved out of money-market funds which ballooned to just under $5 trillion, but not into stocks. Equity bulls are hoping the so-called cash-on-the-sidelines will find a home in stocks. The problem is, major … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 16, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 10.9k, down 13.1k. Foreigners are aggressively getting out of the US sovereign bond market. In March and April, they sold $475.6 billion in Treasury … Continued
After a massive rally in the past three months, the Russell 2000 is tracing out a consolidation pattern. Investor optimism remains very high. For continuation of the uptrend, money-market funds likely hold the key. Barring their cooperation, bulls will have … Continued
Foreigners comprise an important source of buying in the US sovereign and corporate bond markets. In March and April, they bought some corporate bonds but massively sold off Treasury notes and bonds. The vacuum was filled by the Fed, whose … Continued
Last Thursday’s sizable drop in major US equity indices was sudden. Several metrics were so deep into overbought territory the decline probably did not come as a surprise to many. The magnitude of it was. Indices have rallied in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.3k, up 55.2k. Post-conclusion of FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday sought to play down May’s much-better-than-expected jobs report, which showed the economy … Continued
Small-caps are clinging on to major support. The closest the Russell 2000 came in testing major resistance just north of 1600 was Monday when it rallied to 1537.62 intraday. The next couple of sessions, sellers came out in droves. The … Continued