The S&P 500 large cap index lost 1.3 percent last week. Intra-day, off the April 20th high through last Friday’s low, it is now down 2.8 percent. The index retreated after unsuccessfully trying to break out of a declining trend … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two different central-bank meetings, and two different market reactions this week. Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, has a habit of surprising the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: That this is even being discussed in the press and among economists is a sign of how insane things have gotten in central … Continued
Quite an anti-climax! Sunday’s Doha oil talks, that is. Even more so is how markets reacted on Monday. The much-hyped and much-hoped-for agreement for an output freeze/cut failed to materialize. Crude oil had rallied strongly into these talks, so a … Continued
In early April, the S&P 500 (2080.73) is rejected by a July 2015 declining trend line. After a subsequent slight pullback, the index reenergizes itself and goes for that resistance again. Last Thursday, it succeeds (Chart 1). But is the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Glass half full or half empty? Yet again, the IMF issued a downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth, cutting 2016 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting were released this week, and there was nothing substantially new. That said, maybe because FOMC … Continued
Oil bulls must have breathed a heavy sigh of relief on Tuesday as crucial support held. But would the U.S. dollar poop the crude party? On its way to collapsing 76 percent since June 2014 through the February 11th low, … Continued
Spot gold is at a critical juncture. Since the metal troughed on December 3rd last year through the March 11th high, it rallied 23 percent. Even before that high, gold had been in a sideways pattern since it spiked 4.1 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The back and forth between the two camps within the FOMC continues. Last week, several members used public forums to express hawkish opinion … Continued