Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 4.1k, up 50.2k. The FOMC left the benchmark rate between zero and 25 basis points this week. Also left unchanged was the asset buying … Continued
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 46.1k, down 49.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s second meeting. Six more remain – the scheduled ones, that is. A … Continued
Fed chair made it clear last week that things have not deteriorated enough for them to act. In this atmosphere, the 10-year rate can head toward two percent. Equities, in all probability, will not like that, even though they are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 95.6k, up 98.4k. Chair Jerome Powell apparently failed to calm bond-market nerves on Thursday – or at least that is how markets’ reaction would … Continued
Massive growth in money supply could potentially lead to inflationary pressures. But the velocity of money is near record lows. As things stand, inflation expectations are perking up near term but remain suppressed further out. Chart 1 is forcing investors … Continued
Two months into the year, January and February have traded similarly – early strength followed by weakness in the dying sessions. Equity bulls’ inability to hold on to gains comes amidst a spike in long rates. Short rates are behaving, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.8k, down 100.6k. Bond vigilantes and central banks look ready for a duel. The former fired the opening salvo, with long rates rising meaningfully … Continued
Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 103.4k, up 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield had a mini breakout this week at 1.2 percent. This was preceded by a breakout six weeks … Continued